Designing a New Model for Creating Future Scenarios of the Organization Using Scenario Planning (Case: Statistical Center of Iran)

Document Type : Research Article


1 Professor, Department of Management, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

2 MSc of Business Administration, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran


This study presents a mixed model (qualitative- quantitative) to create future scenarios of the Statistical Center of Iran. In this study, using the combination of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the Delphi method based on Schwartz model, which is one of the most commonly used methods in the field of scenario planning and futures study, identify and prioritize the most important drivers that influencing on future of the Statistical Center of Iran and Finally Future scenarios framework is designed. Using an open questionnaire and interview collected 13 experts of research comments and expert consensus is calculated using descriptive statistics. Consensus has been reached on 14 critical drivers that using AHP prioritized and two drivers that they have the most importance and uncertainty are identified and placing them on the range and framework of scenarios were identified.


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